Venezuela’s recent political developments, including the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, have led some global investors to consider returning to the country. However, Jerry Haar, a clinical professor of international business at Florida International University (FIU Business), urges caution and warns that political change does not immediately create a favorable environment for business.
“Curb your enthusiasm,” said Haar, noting that expectations of a swift economic or institutional turnaround are unrealistic.
Haar explained that a leadership change should not be mistaken for systemic transformation. Venezuela has experienced decades of corruption, weak legal institutions, failing infrastructure, and significant capital flight. These factors have left the country unable to support substantial foreign investment in the near future. According to Haar, Venezuela’s position as 178th out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index is “radioactive” for attracting foreign direct investment.
The country’s reliance on oil further restricts opportunities for growth. For seventy years, oil has provided at least 80% of Venezuela’s export revenue; however, its share in global oil supply is only about 1%. Most of this production is heavy crude oil that is expensive to refine. With low global prices and deteriorating infrastructure, few companies are likely to invest in Venezuela’s energy sector now.
“Other than Chevron, one of the very few foreign companies licensed to operate there, it’s difficult to see who would commit capital to Venezuela’s oil sector today,” he said.
Labor shortages and inadequate infrastructure pose additional challenges for businesses considering entry into the Venezuelan market. Around 88% of the population lives in poverty; unemployment approaches 32%; and much of the skilled workforce has emigrated from the country. Infrastructure across transportation, power generation, healthcare, and sanitation remains underfunded and inefficient.
In scenarios following conflict resolution or regime change, Haar predicts that sectors such as energy, construction, agrifood industries and services like logistics, retail and healthcare may recover first—but any recovery will be slow. He points out that Venezuela’s total exports fell from $112 billion in 2010 to $13.6 billion in 2024—a sign of deep economic collapse requiring careful risk assessment by potential investors.
Haar discusses these issues further in his new book “Winning in the New Global Business Landscape,” which examines how technology advancements, infrastructure quality, geopolitical shifts and talent pools influence competitiveness globally. The book suggests companies should focus less on maximizing profit alone when expanding internationally or entering emerging markets—and instead prioritize resilience and operational effectiveness.
